Aktuelles – Details

9. Oktober 2018

Fertility in post-Soviet countries: timing differences and their possible origins

Ein Vortrag von Konstantin Kazenin (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration/RANEPA Institute for applied economic research) im Rahmen der Seminarreihe des AB Ökonomie am IOS.
Datum: 9. Oktober 2018
Zeit: 13.30 Uhr
Ort: Leibniz-Institut für Ost-und Südosteuropaforschung (IOS), Landshuter Str. 4 (Raum 109)

An increase of fertility took place in almost all post‐Soviet countries in the recent 10‐15 years. However, those countries differed rather sharply in fertility timing trends during the increase. In some countries, proportion of the input of elder ages (25+) in TFR has grown, whereas in others no significant shift towards elder fertility was witnessed and the proportion of age groups 15‐19 and 20‐24 in total fertility remained at least as high as 10‐15 years ago. Using different data sources, it is demonstrated that the input of the elder ages is not growing almost exclusively in those post‐Soviet countries where Muslim population is the majority. Two kinds of additional evidence for relevance of Islam/Christian distinction for the timing trends are adduced. First, I consider fertility timing among a large Christian minority in a post‐Soviet country where Muslim population is the majority (ethnic Russians in Kazakhstan) and in a large Muslim minority in a post‐Soviet country where Christian population is the majority (indigenous peoples of North Caucasus, Russia). It is shown that the two minorities follow their co‐believers in other post‐Soviet countries rather than the country of residence in timing trends. Second, our own survey data are considered from an area of southern Russia inhabited predominantly by Muslims, which point to a significant negative relation of personal religiosity of a woman and her age at first birth. I discuss social and economic consequences of the ‘early motherhood’ in the post-Soviet countries where it is observed.