Social fund distribution, electoral outcomes and violence in Kenya
Ein Vortrag von Marina Dodlova (Universität Passau) im Rahmen der Seminarreihe des AB Ökonomie am IOS.
Datum: 26. Juni 2018
Zeit: 13.30 Uhr
Ort: Leibniz-Institut für Ost-und Südosteuropaforschung (IOS), Landshuter Str. 4 (Raum 109)
This paper explores how local political motives influence the allocation of social funds by the example of the Constituency Development Fund (CDF) established in Kenya in 2003. Using panel data on the budget of social projects initiated by the CDF in 2003-2014 and Kenyan election dataset we show that politicians distribute more social funds in areas where they tend to increase their vote shares, that is in areas with low population density and in areas where the majority of population is not of the same ethnicity as the president. We instrument vote shares by their lagged values. We also find that the split of constituencies facilitates the political targeting of non-co-ethnic voters It makes evident that after 2012 the social fund allocation became even more strategical. We thus demonstrate that the distribution of social projects is based not only on neediness criteria but also on electoral support increasing mechanisms and violence. Hence, we do not confirm ethnic favoritism but accentuate vote buying.