BEGIN:VCALENDAR PRODID:-//Microsoft Corporation//Outlook 16.0 MIMEDIR//EN VERSION:2.0 METHOD:PUBLISH X-MS-OLK-FORCEINSPECTOROPEN:TRUE BEGIN:VTIMEZONE TZID:W. Europe Standard Time BEGIN:STANDARD DTSTART:16011028T030000 RRULE:FREQ=YEARLY;BYDAY=-1SU;BYMONTH=10 TZOFFSETFROM:+0200 TZOFFSETTO:+0100 END:STANDARD BEGIN:DAYLIGHT DTSTART:16010325T020000 RRULE:FREQ=YEARLY;BYDAY=-1SU;BYMONTH=3 TZOFFSETFROM:+0100 TZOFFSETTO:+0200 END:DAYLIGHT END:VTIMEZONE BEGIN:VEVENT CLASS:PUBLIC CREATED:20200616T114635Z DESCRIPTION:Ein Vortrag von Anna Pestova (CERGE-EI) im Rahmen der Seminarre ihe des AB Ökonomie am IOS.\ nAbstract:\nWe employ a Bayesian VAR model to estimate the economic effect s of Western financial sanctions imposed on the Russian economy in 2014. S anctions decreased the amount of outstanding Russian corporate external de bt\, but their effect was confounded by falling oil prices. We disentangle the two effects by simulating out-of-sample projections of key Russian ma croeconomic variables conditioned\, first\, solely on the oil price drop a nd\, second\, on both the oil price drop and external debt deleveraging. W e treat the difference between these two as the effect of sanctions. Our r esults imply that the effect is at best modest for most of the variables d iscussed.\n \n DTEND;TZID="W. Europe Standard Time":20200623T150000 DTSTAMP:20200616T114635Z DTSTART;TZID="W. Europe Standard Time":20200623T133000 LAST-MODIFIED:20200616T114635Z LOCATION:Leibniz-Institut für Ost-und Südosteuropaforschung (IOS)\, onlin e via Zoom\, link wird mit den Einladungen verschickt! PRIORITY:5 SEQUENCE:0 SUMMARY;LANGUAGE=de:A. Pestova: Should we care? The economic effects of fin ancial sanctions on the Russian economy TRANSP:OPAQUE UID:040000008200E00074C5B7101A82E00800000000B0F2DBF157F1D501000000000000000 010000000846F6C89C57B7D4C856670557EA2D361 X-ALT-DESC;FMTTYPE=text/html:

Ein Vortrag von Anna Pestova ( CERGE-EI) im Rahmen der Seminarreihe des AB Ö\;konomie am IOS.

Abstract:
We employ a Bayesian VA R model to estimate the economic effects of Western financial sanctions im posed on the Russian economy in 2014. Sanctions decreased the amount of ou tstanding Russian corporate external debt\, but their effect was confounde d by falling oil prices. We disentangle the two effects by simulating out- of-sample projections of key Russian macroeconomic variables conditioned\, first\, solely on the oil price drop and\, second\, on both the oil price drop and external debt deleveraging. We treat the difference between thes e two as the effect of sanctions. Our results imply that the effect is at best modest for most of the variables discussed.

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