Should we care? The economic effects of financial sanctions on the Russian economy (online via Zoom)
Ein Vortrag von Anna Pestova (CERGE-EI) im Rahmen der Seminarreihe des AB Ökonomie am IOS.
Datum: 23. Juni 2020
Zeit: 13.30 Uhr
Ort: Leibniz-Institut für Ost-und Südosteuropaforschung (IOS), online via Zoom, link wird mit den Einladungen verschickt!
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We employ a Bayesian VAR model to estimate the economic effects of Western financial sanctions imposed on the Russian economy in 2014. Sanctions decreased the amount of outstanding Russian corporate external debt, but their effect was confounded by falling oil prices. We disentangle the two effects by simulating out-of-sample projections of key Russian macroeconomic variables conditioned, first, solely on the oil price drop and, second, on both the oil price drop and external debt deleveraging. We treat the difference between these two as the effect of sanctions. Our results imply that the effect is at best modest for most of the variables discussed.